Panic Buying: What’s behind it?

Since the novel coronavirus hit our shores earlier this year, we’ve seen peaks and troughs of uncertainty and fear. And yet, there seems to be a strange new barometer of how concerned the public is: How many toilet paper rolls remain on grocery shelves.

Panic buying has caused fistfights, screaming matches, and mass hysteria in the aisles of our local grocers. And in a fascinating twist, the hottest property is not even an item connected to coronavirus symptoms or something that will help us stay healthy.

Toilet paper. Who knew.

And with all the accusations of people being horrible and selfish, I felt the need to chime in with some potential behavioural science-based reasons influencing why panic buying is one of the many odd things happening since we hopped on this Coronacoaster in March of 2020.

1.     A trigger makes people want to take action

Have you ever been anxiously waiting for some news, and found yourself doing something random just to pass the time? Like going over the top cleaning your apartment, or suddenly deciding it’s time to clear out your wardrobe?

What seems to happen with panic buying is a piece of news triggers heightened fear or uncertainty in the public. That trigger might be a new cluster of cases, an announcement of a lockdown, or even rumours that a lockdown is coming.

In response to the trigger, it seems like people look to harness a sense of control by taking positive action. In reality, the best response to Covid-19 is usually a lack of action – staying at home, not going out, not having close contact with others. However, when the fear is high, it still feels good to do something. Buying extra groceries can make us feel more in control of our circumstances. We use the irrational reasoning: If cases are rising, at least we’ve done something to be more prepared.

2.     Social proof

Humans always look to others for reference. Social proof is the idea that if lots of other people are doing something, then I should do that thing too.

When the media starts reporting that everyone is buying toilet paper, we notice it. When we go into a store, and there’s a line to get to the toilet paper aisle, we see how popular it is.

When we see loads of other people packing their trollies with toilet paper, we feel the urge to do it ourselves. This plays into the next point.

3.     Scarcity (FOMO)

Toilet paper is a big, fat item. When it starts running low in stores, it doesn’t look the same as when there isn’t any oregano left. It’s aesthetically obvious, which creates scarcity.

Scarcity is the fancy word we use for FOMO – fear of missing out. Scarcity creates more urgency in others, and will likely start to influence even those people who theoretically disagree with panic buying. Suddenly, looking at all these bare aisles, it seems likely that there’ll be a genuine shortage.

4.     Fundamental Attribution Bias

But then wouldn’t people start to feel foolish and selfish for engaging with panic buying? Perhaps not.

FAE is an interesting cognitive bias, based on the idea that we tend to judge others more negatively but acknowledge our entire situation to justify the same behaviour.

In other words, when we’re in the thick of panic buying, it seems unlikely that most people are doing so with malicious intent. I doubt anyone is buying thinking, “haha! Now everyone else will miss out!”

Call me an optimist, but I don’t imagine many evil laughs happening as people load up the back of their car with toilet paper.

Instead, it may be the case that FAE is at work. That is, the tendency to see others panic buying and assume they’re doing so because they’re selfish and rude. But then if I do the same thing, I am more likely to justify it with something like this: “I wouldn’t have to buy lots of toilet paper if everyone else had just been fair from the beginning. Now I have to sneak out this toilet paper and deal with people staring at me, and it’s only because I need to make sure I have enough for my family, considering all the assholes are creating shortages.”

Is this happening with everyone? Perhaps not. Maybe some people aren’t thinking about it all that much, instead caught up in the frenzy and shaking themselves awake when they end up sitting in the carpark with more groceries than they’ve ever bought before.

But it’s a thought.

5.     The mere exposure effect

The mere exposure effect suggests that the more we are exposed to something, the more likely we are to place importance on that thing. It’s why most businesses will put ads on social media with an expectation that their consumer will have to see the ad several times before engaging with it.

When we start seeing panic buying and toilet paper trending on twitter, people posting about it on Facebook and Instagram, the news on TV and radio discussing it, the mere exposure effect can come into play.

Because we keep hearing and seeing toilet paper everywhere, we start to place more importance on it. Even the most last-minute toilet paper buyer might find themselves thinking, ‘Wow, maybe I should actually grab another pack when I go to the shops later’.

6.     Confirmation of shortages

When stores (rightly) start placing limitations on certain items, this becomes a psychological confirmation that shortage is a risk. We might even use this to justify buying more (confirmation bias): “See, there’s a risk they’ll run out, so they’ve put shortages on! So, of course, I had to buy some to ensure I didn’t miss out!“

Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias where we look for evidence that supports our current views or focus only on the information that aligns with our existing beliefs. In this case, it could be that putting limitations on items can help us justify that we needed to buy extra in the first place.

Conclusion

It’s my view that the main forces behind panic buying are not selfishness and greed. I am sure there will be some who are exceptions to that, who don’t care about anyone else and blatantly engage in panic buying without even thinking of others.

But more likely, I think the forces of social proof, scarcity, and mere exposure feed into a communal cycle of buying, hoarding and distress at periods of heightened uncertainty, until it dies down again. For me, it’s more an interesting demonstration of human decision making and influence than anything else.

How much toilet paper remains on the shelves is probably a good new metric to identify public levels of trust in authority and feelings of safety at any given time. And perhaps, when we recognise that these influences are probably urging us to buy things we don’t need, we’ll be able to stop ourselves from making irrational decisions.

This article gives you my theories on why panic buying has been so rampant in 2020. Perhaps you disagree - I’d love to know your thoughts!

Sonia

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