Somehow, We Got Through 2020
On the human fear of uncertainty and the certain end to 2020
Scientifically speaking, I think we could call 2020 a shitstorm.
Figure A: Scientific rendition of 2020.
No one ordered the underlying sense of tragedy, loss and ambiguity that came with this year. Some have even suffered the most tragic events known to the human experience — death, illness, isolation, economic turmoil. My heart goes out to them.
For others, the year has been more frustrating than tragic. For me, it has felt a little like a sugar-free donut: Looks delicious… but tastes weirdly like soap and leaves you with a stomach ache and the feeling you’ve been duped. Cool.
The human aversion to uncertainty
Research conducted this year suggests people struggled with uncertainty at higher levels in 2020. This is unsurprising, considering common situations this year — uncertainty about jobs, health, loved ones, wedding plans and so on.
Humans crave certainty. It’s arguably a tenet of the evolutionary brain: For early humans to survive, it made sense to take an acutely risk-averse approach to the world. If you’re not sure about these new berries, stick to the ones you know are safe. The general idea is that more certainty leads to survival, which leads to continuation of the species.
So, that makes the unknown a kind of human kryptonite. When we lose the feeling of control or certainty over our lives, the crocodile part of our brain starts to freak out. It might be why, for example, when you’re worried about a presentation or upcoming meeting, preparing and practising makes you feel so much better — it gives you more certainty about the future.
We are so driven towards certainty that research suggests people are less stressed when they know they will get an electric shock, compared to when they have a 50/50 chance of getting one. We’d rather experience an electric shock than sit in uncertainty.
Oof.
Uncertainty can propel us towards anxiety, fear, frustration, and self-questioning. That’s a natural consequence of not knowing what the future brings, and being stripped of the chance to prepare for it or plan it out.
Behavioural scientists have also found a perception of certainty is often over-valued in decision-making. In one study, “a vaccine that was described as 100% effective against 70% of disease targets was preferred to one described as 70% effective against 100% of disease targets”, and “participants preferred a 100% discount on a cup of coffee every ten days to other more frequent, but lower amount, discounts”. The researchers state that “People overweight certainty, even when certainty is only an illusion.”
No wonder that 100 emoji does so well.
We’ve made it through the unknown
This year has shoved the unknown into our faces like a fox terrier with their favourite chew toy. Getting through this year-that-no-one-asked-for is, alone, an outstanding achievement.
And, as Epictetus infers below, it’s the tough stuff that makes us who we are. If you’ve been lucky enough to be challenged, to have time to reflect or grow or achieve or change course this year, then that’s even better.
“What would have become of Hercules do you think if there had been no lion, hydra, stag or boar — and no savage criminals to rid the world of? What would he have done in the absence of such challenges? Obviously he would have just rolled over in bed and gone back to sleep. So by snoring his life away in luxury and comfort he never would have developed into the mighty Hercules. And even if he had, what good would it have done him? What would have been the use of those arms, that physique, and that noble soul, without crises or conditions to stir into him action?”- Epictetus
I think most people have demonstrated a kind of Herculean resilience this year. I also suspect that the Stoics would encourage us to fight our ongoing uncertainty with presence. To replace our fears about the future with gratitude, and our frustration of not knowing with the grounding of mindfulness. I think the execution of that is probably more Zeus-like than Herculean, but it’s something to work towards.
The certain end to an uncertain year
For me, this year has demonstrated that life is fleeting. 2020 pulled the rug out from under my feet, as I watched my existing business slowly melt into the ground. Many had it far worse than I, and it wasn’t the end of the world. Just a shift. But everything thrown at us reminds us of who we are, what we care about, and the fact that things could change at any moment. It pushed me to pay attention to the important things. It helped me to slow down. Most importantly, it prompted me to pay attention to the present, because it’s all we have in this big crazy ride we call the human experience.
As Seneca says, “The whole future lies in uncertainty: live immediately.”
Ironically, the disruption of my expectations this year allowed me to explore things I wouldn’t have otherwise. I wrote 42 long-form blog posts and started a newsletter, for example. I also got my cat semi-famous on TikTok. (I am weirdly proud of this.) There have been some incredible moments, for which I’m grateful.
I hope you have some fond memories amidst the uncertainty, too. I’d love to hear about them below, and I think this time is the perfect one to reflect on them.
And now, we come towards the New Year. Somehow we have hurtled towards it at an astonishing speed, and simultaneously felt time slow down to a trickle. Alas, 2021 is getting ready to greet us anyway.
A change in calendar year won’t change our lives. By all accounts, here in NSW things with Covid were very good and now they are starting to look not so good. We will still feel uncertainty in 2021. The only certain thing, as they say, is change.
Still, the transition offers us the opportunity to celebrate whatever storm we have weathered, to have a moment of reflection and gratitude for all that we have, and to enjoy the people who matter most. I hope it’s a great one for you.
Now may also be the time that people lament on what they weren’t able to achieve. Maybe they regret not using their time in quarantine ‘productively’, or not losing weight, or not expanding their business. But it’s important to recognise that the main thing to be proud of this year is simply getting through it. If you’ve got more to add on top of that, then that’s fantastic, but that is a cherry on top.
Congratulations — you’ve made it through a tough one.
Sending love, health and gratitude,
Sonia